Climate change impacts on potential solar energy production: A study case in Fukushima, Japan

被引：21

作者：

Oka, Kazutaka ^{[1
]}

Mizutani, Wataru ^{[2
]}

Ashina, Shuichi ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Climate Change Adaptat, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[2] Mizuho Informat & Res Inst Inc, Environm & Energy Div 1, Chiyoda Ku, 2-3 Kanda Nishikicho, Tokyo 1018443, Japan

[3] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

来源：

RENEWABLE ENERGY | 2020年 / 153卷 / 249-260期

关键词：

Climate change; Impact assessment; Climate scenario; Renewable energy; Photovoltaic energy; DIFFUSE FRACTION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.renene.2020.01.126

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

To construct a long-term energy plan for renewable energies such as photovoltaics (PV), the influence of meteorological conditions on energy yield must be considered. It is necessary to understand how climate change impacts energy generation. For that purpose, a method to estimate PV energy generation considering climate change scenarios was developed. The developed method can estimate hourly generation amounts with spatial resolutions of 1-km mesh. It was applied to Fukushima Prefecture, located in the northeast region of Japan. To establish future scenarios three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and seven Global Climate Models (GCM) were analyzed, and uncertainties caused by differences in future scenarios were investigated. The results show that annual generation of PV energy was estimated to increase on average by 1.7% in 2030, 3.9% in 2050, and 4.9% in 2070 due to climate change. Energy plans and adaptation actions are expected to be performed so the country is prepared for future impacts. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：249 / 260

页数：12

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