The failure of bayes system reliability inference based on data with multi-level applicability

When test or operation-experience data are used that apply at once to two or more system-levels, Bayes reliability inferences at different levels generally give inconsistent results, This inconsistency, quite counter-intuitive when it is first recognized, is particularly important in major analyses of occurrence rates of failures and consequent hazards in space & missile launches, It arises as the lack of perfect aggregation in other applications, as well. Others might consider this inconsistency merely a modeling error, and then attempt, with negligible success, to find means for ameliorating it, I believe it represents a fundamental breakdown in the usual Bayes methodology in the circumstances noted, A basic restructuring of the Bayes procedure is required (eg, by exchanging the roles of engineering & experience data).