[1] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Fac Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Dept Noncommunicable Dis Epidemiol, London WC1E 7HT, England
[2] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Fac Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London WC1E 7HT, England
[3] Natl Inst Hlth Res, Biomed Res Unit, Barts Hlth, London, England
[4] UCL, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Clin Epidemiol, London WC1E 7HB, England
[5] Open Univ, Dept Stat, Milton Keynes MK7 6BJ, Bucks, England