A Forecast of the Quantity of Rural Migrant Workers in Chinese Construction Industry - Based on the Grey System Theory

Based on the grey system theory, using the number of rural migrant workers in China from 2013 to 2019 as the raw data, a short-term forecast of the quantity of rural migrant workers in construction industry from 2020 to 2025 is made by means of establishing a G,M(l, I) prediction model. The forecast shows that the slightly decreasing trend will result in a less-than-50million workers number by the year of 2021. Then, the test of the G,M(l,I) model indicates that the prediction accuracy will be up to 98%, i.e. the relative error will be less than 2%, for the number of rural migrant workers in construction industry. We can conclude that the prediction level will be Excellent, and the results will reach a high level of reliability. Thus, in order to facilitate the development of the industry, relevant suggestions will heavily focus on the transformation of the industry, such as promoting technical progress, improving the quality of migrant workers and accelerating the process of professionalization, enhancing the state of social security and labor rights for migrant workers to attract more talents, etc.