Impact of Oil Price Shocks on China's Economy: A DSGE-based Analysis

被引：0

作者：

Jian Zhi-hong ^{[1
]}

Li Shuang ^{[1
]}

Zheng Jun-yao ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Econ, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China

来源：

2010 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING (ICMSE) | 2010年

关键词：

oil price shocks; money supply mechanism; DSGE; economic fluctuation; AGGREGATE MACROECONOMIC BEHAVIOR; MONETARY-POLICY; ENERGY; MODELS;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TP39 [计算机的应用];

学科分类号：

081203 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

This paper constructs a DSGE model to investigate the influences of oil price shocks on China's economy. Parameter estimation indicates that China's money supply mechanism does not target oil price shock, but makes a significant pro-cyclical response to output and a counter-cyclical reaction to inflation. It also shows that the persistence and volatility of oil price shocks are much stronger than that of other exogenous shocks. Impulse analysis exhibits that oil price shocks exert a lasting contraction effect on output and consumption, and meanwhile push inflation up. Furthermore, forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition reveal that the impact of oil price shock is stronger than other five shocks, and it is one of the main sources of China's economic fluctuation.

引用

页码：1503 / 1512

页数：10

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