CHARACTERIZING CORROSION DEFECTS WITH APPARENT HIGH GROWTH RATES ON TRANSMISSION PIPELINES

Consecutive in-line inspections of transmission pipelines enable a comparison between the inspection results to characterize corrosion growth. Despite the high levels of in-line inspection tool accuracy and detection capabilities, corrosion defects with low calculated burst capacities may be detected on a subsequent inspection that were not reported in a previous inspection. These newly reported defects can pose a substantial challenge as the apparent growth rates between inspections of these defects can potentially drive unnecessary repair digs. This paper characterizes the contributing factors that can explain these phenomena, including: Typical corrosion growth rates and their associated statistical frequency The diminishing detection capability of inspection tools for smaller defects The inspection tool minimum reporting threshold The measurement accuracy of inspection tools. A statistical analysis was developed to quantify this interacting set of factors using Monte Carlo simulations that work retrospectively, covering a range of observed measured defect depths and then simulating the processes that could lead to newly reported defects being un-matched in a previous inspection. This analysis can be used to quantify the likelihood that a defect of a specific measured size would have been unreported in an earlier inspection due only to the performance characteristics of the inspection tool, and not as a result of defect growth that initiated since the time of the previous inspection. A set of case studies covering a range of pipeline inspection intervals ranging from 2 to 10 years are presented to demonstrate how this approach can be used to quantify appropriate growth rates that may be applied to these un-matched defects when assessing the remaining life or predicted probability of failure.