Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality patterns in 2006-2015 and prediction of the epidemiological trend to 2025 in China

BACKGROUND Due to dietary patterns, the aging population, and other high-risk factors, the occurrence of pancreatic cancer (PC) has been rapidly increasing in China. AIM To present the epidemiological trends of PC in China over the past decade and the estimated trend in 2025 and to compare the international differences in PC morbidity and mortality. METHODS This study used a series of nationally representative data from the National Central Cancer Registry of China (NCCR), the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation databases. Age-standardized data of the PC incidence and mortality from 2006 to 2015 in China were extracted from the NCCR database. Linear regression models were used to estimate the incidence and mortality rates of PC in 2025. RESULTS The age-standardized rates of PC in China increased from 3.65 per 100000 in 2006 to 4.31 per 100000 in 2015 and were estimated to reach up to 5.52 per 100000 in 2025. The mortality went from 3.35 per 100000 in 2006 to 3.78 per 100000 in 2015, estimated to reach up to 4.6 per 100000 in 2025. The number of new cases and deaths was low before 45 years and the peak age of onset was 85-89 years. The incidence and mortality rates in men were higher than those in women regardless of the region in China. In addition, the incidence and mortality rates in China were higher than the average level around the world. Likewise, disability-adjusted life years attributed to PC in China were 197.22 years per 100000, above the average level around the world. CONCLUSION This study presented an increasing trend of PC in China and differences in morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years between Chinese and global populations. Efforts need to be made to decrease the PC incidence and improve patient outcomes.