Evaluation of Customer-oriented Power Supply Risk with Distributed PV-Storage Energy Systems

The valuation of whether network operators meet users' expectations in ensuring a continuous supply to their premises is important in determining their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for electricity. Distributed resources such as photovoltaic (PV) systems will dominate future networks, and thus customers' WTP will vary dynamically, both spatially and temporally. Whereas system-wide indices are typically used to assess network performance, there is a requirement to complement these with customer-based indices to accurately quantify the risk of outages to affected and worst-served customers. This paper presents an enhanced Monte Carlo simulation technique, which performs reliability assessment of a typical MV/LV urban distribution network. Two smart grid scenarios considering controllability of PV and energy storage (ES) are designed to improve network performance. Customer-based reliability indices, measuring the frequency and duration of interruptions, and energy not supplied are thoroughly assessed. Results demonstrate the potential of hybrid PV-ES in reducing power supply risk for worst-served customers.