CLIMATE-DRIVEN FISHERY SHIFTS: FRAMING THE PROBLEM & PROPOSING SOLUTIONS FOR SHIFTS ACROSS SHARED BORDERS

As oceans warm, fish around the globe are shifting to cooler waters. This will present significant challenges for global fisheries management, most of which is organized within set jurisdictional boundaries. Climate-driven fishery shifts will challenge sustainable fisheries management at local, regional, and international levels. However, one of the most vexing problems will be crossborder shifts: when a fishery shifts from one country's waters into another's. Cross-border shifts will exacerbate international tensions and undermine environmental sustainability. They will also add new dimensions to the problem of climate justice. While regional patterns vary, global trends indicate that marine organisms are generally moving towards the poles. Therefore, these shifts are predicted to fall the hardest on developing nations in the tropics. In theory, creative and flexible bilateral agreements could address cross-border shifts. However, negotiations may be impeded by a wide range of challenges, including bargaining inequity. This Note argues that the problems posed by cross-border fishery shifts are analogous to those presented by international hazardous waste disposal in the 1980s. In both situations, there is a global trend that puts developing countries at a disadvantage. In both cases, this global trend may systematically undermine hundreds of discrete bilateral negotiations. Thus, this Note proposes a new international treaty modeled on the Basel Convention on Transboundary Movement of Hazardous Wastes. This treaty would establish a procedural checklist for any countries that experience a cross-border fishery shift. Proactively setting the stage for negotiations can help countries develop creative and flexible bilateral agreements that are tailored to their unique situation.