Growth of 19 conifer species is highly sensitive to winter warming, spring frost and summer drought

Background and Aims Conifers are key components of many temperate and boreal forests and are important for forestry, but species differences in stem growth responses to climate are still poorly understood and may hinder effective management of these forests in a warmer and drier future. Methods We studied 19 Northern Hemisphere conifer species planted in a 50-year-old common garden experiment in the Netherlands to (1) assess the effect of temporal dynamics in climate on stem growth, (2) test for a possible positive relationship between the growth potential and climatic growth sensitivity across species, and (3) evaluate the extent to which stem growth is controlled by phylogeny. Key results Eighty-nine per cent of the species showed a significant reduction in stem growth to summer drought, 37 % responded negatively to spring frost and 32 % responded positively to higher winter temperatures. Species differed largely in their growth sensitivity to climatic variation and showed, for example, a four-fold difference in growth reduction to summer drought. Remarkably, we did not find a positive relationship between productivity and climatic sensitivity, but instead observed that some species combined a low growth sensitivity to summer drought with high growth potential. Both growth sensitivity to climate and growth potential were partly phylogenetically controlled. Conclusions A warmer and drier future climate is likely to reduce the productivity of most conifer species. We did not find a relationship between growth potential and growth sensitivity to climate; instead, some species combined high growth potential with low sensitivity to summer drought. This may help forest managers to select productive species that are able to cope with a warmer and drier future.