THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS AND THE TOURISM

Since the beginning of 2008, the short-term outlook for the global travel and tourism industry has sharply deteriorated. The economic crisis already had an impact on transport trends. The latest estimates suggested that air travel recorded a marked slowdown in 2008, and even a decline in some markets. After a 9% increase in the first three month of 2008, the increase in international tourist arrivals fell to 3% in quarter two, moving into negative figures, -1%, in the second half of 2008. The final result was an estimated 2% growth for the full year. In the short to medium term in general will take cheaper vacations, closer to home. Camping could become more popular again, or apartments and youth hostels. And why not travel by bicycle? This recession will be a very deep one, and it will continue well into 2010, if not longer. Given last year's performance, as well as trends recorded in the first couple of months of this year, the prospects for tourism in 2009 appear to be rather gloomy. Almost everyone expects the first half of 2009 to be bad, particularly in view of the good start to 2008. Many express a hope that the second half will be better, but there is an increasing awareness that the current economic problems may persist into 2010. All in all, 2009 is going to be a difficult year not least for Europe and North America -although an encouraging number of industry stakeholders and analysts do see opportunities in the difficulties