MAXENT MODELLING FOR PREDICTING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF ANABASIS APHYLLA IN NORTHWESTERN CHINA

Detailed and reliable information about the suitable distribution of species provides important knowledge for species protection management. The objectives of the study were to predict and analyze the potential distribution, driving factors and niche parameters of Anabasis aphylla under different scenarios. We combined the distribution data of A. aphylla, maximum entropy model and ArcGIS to predict the potential distribution of the plant in northwestern China under Paleoclimate, current and future (RCP4.5 2050 and RCP4.5 2070) climatic scenarios. The results showed the highly suitable distribution areas of A. aphylla were mainly concentrated in the southern margin of the Junggar Basin and the west side of the Tarim Basin. The primary environmental variable limit for the distribution of A. aphylla was precipitation seasonality. Precipitation and temperature have an important influence on the distribution of A. aphylla. According to the prediction of Palaeoclimate scenario, unsuitable areas of A. aphylla under the current, 2050 and 2070 climatic scenarios all increased, while the barely suitable areas of A. aphylla decreased. This study provides an important theoretical basis for the management, protection and restoration of A. aphylla.