Probabilistic large strain mine tailings consolidation predictions

A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis technique is demonstrated for the probabilistic prediction of one-dimensional large strain uranium mine tailings consolidation. Probability distributions for the parameters describing the constitutive large strain consolidation relationships were determined from the results of a previously conducted laboratory testing program. One thousand consecutive model simulations were conducted, and for each simulation, model input parameters were randomly sampled from their respective probability distribution. The results of these simulations were then used to determine the probability distributions for final consolidation time and level. These probability distributions can be used for the development of risk-based engineering design criteria. The results show a considerable amount of prediction uncertainty, specifically for the simulation of consolidation time.