Using multiple indexes to analyze temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and drought in Xinjiang, China

There is an urgent need to understand the characteristics of both precipitation and drought in arid regions of China. Different indexes may provide differing results in terms of the detection and estimation of the temporal and spatial extent of droughts. In this study, the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall and drought at 53 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2016 across the Xinjiang region of China were analyzed. Four precipitation-related indexes (precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP), standardized precipitation index (SPI), and long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index (LDFAI)) were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of drought and flood. In addition, the Bayesian method and Pettitt test were used as detection tools to identify changing points in precipitation time series. The study indicated the following: (1) a wetting tendency was evident in recent years and was supported by the upward trend in SPI and inter-decadal variation in summer precipitation; (2) the spatial patterns and tendencies of PCD, PCP, and SPI were markedly different in southern and northern Xinjiang; (3) compared with the Pettitt test, use of the Bayesian method provided data closer to the real drought events; (4) it is suggested that multiple indices be used for detecting precipitation and drought characteristics as use of the SPI may lead to other indexes related to flood and drought risks being ignored.