Space Heating Control by Estimating Acceptable Set-Point Temperature Based on Survival Analysis

This study proposes space heating control that considers both the operating time and change status of set-point temperature. To estimate acceptable set-points from such data, survival analysis is used to model acceptable rates of set-points. The proposed method determines whether a given set-point is acceptable based on the shape parameters of the acceptable rate. According to the determination, the proposed method inputs a new set-point. The proposed method is evaluated using data obtained from an experiment where the proposed method was applied to apartments in a newly constructed building in France. Set-points for the apartments were input according to the proposed method in an experiment performed for 3 weeks from the end of November 2016. This study shows transition of input set-points that were estimated to be acceptable during the experiment. The present paper evaluates the use rates of input set-points by groups according to the estimated acceptability of input set-points. This study also shows rough computations of energy-saving effects by the proposed method. A benefit from considering the operating times of set-points is also presented. The results demonstrate that the proposed method likely uses a set-point suitable to each apartment for energy-saving, with avoiding incorrect estimation of acceptable set-points.