SCENARIO OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE MODEL HADGEM IN THE REGIONAL FOREST DEVELOPMENT PLANS

According to representation of the zonal forest vegetation in scenario of the HadGem variant RCP 45 and 85, there are significant changes in environmental conditions, which can affect the survival or existence of the forest at all. The RCP 45 Model includes the impact of mitigation measures. The RCP 85 Model does not respect any measures. Model scenarios of possible climate developments over the coming decades depend on emission scenarios and thus on environmental conditions. Just this type of threat represents a high degree of uncertainty for the successful implementation of forest adaptation measures. The results are presented on a pilot territory for the Beskydy Natural Forest Area (North Moravia, Czech Republic). The comparison period is the climatic data of operative climatic normal (1981-2010). Based on the approximation of the climatic data according to the HadGem model for 3 periods up to the year 2081, the prediction of climate changes was processed by the represented forest vegetation zones.