Application of continuous time markov theory in modeling courtship behavior and copulation rate of the calanoid copepod Eurytemora affinis

We present a simple model, derived using a continuous time Markov (CTM) technique of model formulation, for predicting the probability of a courtship resulting in copulation for a laboratory population of Eurytemora affinis. This model represents a novel use, in behavioral ecology, of CTM as a method for sequential analysis. The model results in an acceptable agreement (validated by chi(2) goodness-of-fit analysis) between the predicted and observed copulation rates of the laboratory population of E. affinis. The copulation rate predicted by the model, with estimated weightings to the transition rates, is 16.7%; the observed rate was 13.0% (16 copulations out of 123 courtship bouts observed), for a discrepancy of 3.7%. Continuous time Markov theory appears to adequately describe mating behavior in this experimental population, implying ''forgetfulness'' in the courtship sequence.