The Incidence of Metabolic Syndrome and the Most Powerful Components as Predictors of Metabolic Syndrome in Central Iran: A 10-Year Follow-Up in a Cohort Study

Background: Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is rapidly growing in today's world as an important predictor for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Objectives: The present study aimed at assessing the incidence of MetS and the most powerful components as predictors of MetS in a cohort study in central Iran. Methods: This cohort study was a follow-up of participants (n = 2000 and aged 20 to 74 years), who were selected using multistage random cluster sampling method from urban areas of Yazd, Iran, during year 2005 and repeated in 2015. Metabolic Syndrome was defined using a modified version of National cholesterol education program adult treatment panel III (NCEP III) definition. To assess hazard ratio of components of MetS for crude and adjusted values in two models, Cox proportional hazard regression was used. Results: Prevalence of MetS was 44.8% (n = 887) at baseline. Therefore, we followed subjects without MetS (n = 809) in 2015. After about 10 years, MetS was developed in 56.1% (n = 454) of subjects. Incidence of MetS in males and females was 56.1/ 1000 person-years and 58.7/ 1000 person-years, respectively. The analysis revealed that incidence of MetS significantly increased with age and higher level of socio-economic status and decreased with high level of education. In females and males the most powerful component for incidence of MetS was high fasting blood glucose (HR = 16.6, 95% CI: 1.91-22.82) and hypertriglyceridemia (HR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.02-2.6), respectively. Conclusions: The current study showed a high incidence of MetS in males and females residing in central Iran. Furthermore, community-based interventions that reduce MetS in the population are needed.