Scenario Analysis for Achieving South Korea's Targets of the "3020 Renewable Energy Plan" in the Power Sector

This paper aimed to explore the optimal conditions for achieving the Moon Jae-in administration's vision for South Korea's renewable energy policy, which is to supply 20% of the total electricity generation with renewable energy by 2030. To this end, we made three assumptions: The goal for renewable energy sources will be reached; the total electricity demand will be fully met; and the share of coal used in power generation will not exceed 25%. An optimal mix of energy sources for power generation that satisfies these conditions at minimal cost has been identified. Two estimates of total electricity demand were used for each of two scenarios: one value was borrowed from the current Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand; the other was adjusted for real-world conditions. Two scenarios were drawn from these formulations. In the adjusted demand scenario, LNG and nuclear energy accounted for 32% and 23%, respectively. Meanwhile, of the 20% of the total share accounted for by renewable energy sources, PV and wind power made up 5% and 13%, respectively. In the other scenario, which used the electricity demand estimate of the Basic Plan, LNG and nuclear energy accounted for 35% and 20%, respectively, whereas PV and wind made up 4% and 14% of the renewable energy share, respectively.