Learning Surrogate Functions for the Short-Horizon Planning in Same-Day Delivery Problems

Same-day delivery problems are challenging stochastic vehicle routing problems, where dynamically arriving orders have to be delivered to customers within a short time while minimizing costs. In this work, we consider the short-horizon planning of a problem variant where every order has to be delivered with the goal to minimize delivery tardiness, travel times, and labor costs of the drivers involved. Stochastic information as spatial and temporal order distributions is available upfront. Since timely routing decisions have to be made over the planning horizon of a day, the well-known sampling approach from the literature for considering expected future orders is not suitable due to its high runtimes. To mitigate this, we suggest to use a surrogate function for route durations that predicts the future delivery duration of the orders belonging to a route at its planned starting time. This surrogate function is directly used in the online optimization replacing the myopic current route duration. The function is trained offline by data obtained from running full day-simulations, sampling and solving a number of scenarios for each route at each decision point in time. We consider three different models for the surrogate function and compare with a sampling approach on challenging real-world inspired artificial instances. Results indicate that the new approach can outperform the sampling approach by orders of magnitude regarding runtime while significantly reducing travel costs in most cases.