Assessment of suitable cultivation region for Panax notoginseng under different climatic conditions using MaxEnt model and high-performance liquid chromatography in China

Climate change and human activities in recent years have led to habitat narrowing or migration of medicinal plants and may result in quality changes. However, Panax notoginseng (Burkill) F. H. Chen (P. notoginseng), a valuable traditional medicine in China, has been included in a few studies to address climate challenges. With the increasing demand for this medicinal herb, the sustainable supply of high-quality P. notoginseng has become particularly important. Therefore, this study integrated the habitat and quality of P. notoginseng to assess its potential distribution in China under climate change conditions. To achieve this, occurrence records and samples of P. notoginseng were collected using online and field surveys. Suitable habitats of P. notoginseng were predicted for different periods using the parameter-optimized MaxEnt model, and the saponin content of the samples was determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The results suggested that the current highly suitable habitats (105277.78 km2) were predicted to be mainly distributed in the central and eastern parts of Yunnan Province. However, under future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitat was predicted to gradually decrease and move to high-altitude areas in the central-eastern part of Yunnan province. Furthermore, the saponin content in highly suitable habitats was relatively low. Temperature and precipitation play a key role in the distribution of P. notoginseng. Overall, the findings of the present study serve as references for the identification of suitable areas for P. notoginseng cultivation in China.