Aphidophagous ladybirds (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) and climate change: a review

I here review the potential effects of climate change on aphidophagous ladybirds and their future diversity. Aphidophagous ladybirds face challenges arising directly from climatic change and indirect challenges due to the effect of climate on their aphid prey and other organisms with which they interact. Ladybirds show at least some potential to respond to changes of climate through genetic change or phenotypic plasticity, notably through changes in colour pattern, dormancy and voltinism but also through thermal physiology and microhabitat or habitat plasticity. Phenological changes will likely occur in many aphidophagous species arising from relations with their prey. Changes in aphid abundance may lead to changes in ladybird prey associations over the season. The tendency to prey on multiple aphid species will insulate many ladybird predators from decline resulting from changes in the abundance of particular aphids. Like other insects, the geographic ranges of aphidophagous ladybird species will change as they track the climate. This is evidenced by the fossil record of ladybirds and by recent changes in ladybird biogeography. Such changes may be accompanied by a degree of thermal or phenological adaptation. It is likely that cold-adapted ladybirds and some island species will go extinct. Specialised species may also be threatened. A problem in assessing the threat to the latter is the minimal amount of research carried out on specialised species. In summary, aphidophagous ladybirds exhibit some potential resilience against climate change, but future climatic effects on their overall biodiversity are not fully clear.