Scenario-Based Forecasts of Changes in the Temperature and Hydrological Regime of Crimea in the XXI Century by Data of CMIP6 Climate Models

Scenario projections of climate changes in the XXI century in Crimea are presented based on the data of an ensemble of models of the recent generation CMIP6 for aggressive SSP585 and moderate SSP245 scenarios of anthropogenic impact. Variations of season-averaged values of temperature and precipitation for winter and summer, the number of days with extreme anomalies of temperature and precipitation, the rate of precipitation, and the contribution of heavy precipitation to the seasonal total are shown. For the current period, the data of the models are compared with reanalysis data ERA5 and interpolated grid observation data CRUTS4.05. On the average over the model ensemble, the summer temperature is expected to increase by similar to 6 and 2.5 degrees C by the late XXI century according to scenarios SSP585 and SSP245, respectively. The number of days in summer with extremely high temperature (95% percentile of the distribution function for 1981-2010) will increase 5-6 times as soon as the mid-XXI century and will reach similar to 40 days by the end of the century, even for a moderate scenario. Strong year-to-year variations are typical of seasonal precipitation, at which statistically insignificant increase in winter can be seen in the models, while the summer precipitation is expected to decrease considerably by similar to 15 and 40% for scenarios SSP585 and SSP245, respectively. At the same time, no statistically significant decrease is expected in the intensity and extremeness of precipitation. In winter, the proportion of extreme precipitation in its total will increase considerably (from 25 to 35%). It should be noted that the changes forecasted for the nearest two decades are practically independent of the analyzed scenarios of anthropogenic impact. The decrease in precipitation at an increase in the temperature demonstrates the important role of atmospheric dynamics in the future changes in the characteristics of precipitation in the region under study.