Experts' expected stock return and the valuation model in US

With respect to the standard valuation model, this paper aims to solve the problem of the determination of the expected return by using stock price expectations (S&P industrial index) revealed by Livingston's survey date issued from a panel of experts. It then becomes possible to give a measure of the ''effective ex-ante risk premium''. This premium appears to take rather realistic values and can be explained altogether by the ''consumer sentiment index'' which stands for the general economic confidence, and an indicator of financial uncertainty related to the risk of capital depreciation. Hence, experts' expectations are what one would expect if there is any truth to the present value model of stock price.