AN EXTENDED SEIARD MODEL FOR COVID-19 VACCINATION IN MEXICO: ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

In this study, we propose and analyse an extended SEIARD model with vaccination. We compute the control reproduction number R-c of our model and study the stability of equilibria. We show that the set of disease-free equilibria is locally asymptotically stable when R-c < 1 and unstable when R-c > 1, and we provide a sufficient condition for its global stability. Furthermore, we perform numerical simulations using the reported data of COVID-19 infections and vaccination in Mexico to study the impact of different vaccination, transmission and efficacy rates on the dynamics of the disease.