A new approach for the evaluation of train delay as a function of system components reliability in railway applications

In railway applications, the probabilistic estimation of the occurrence of system failures, which result in trains delay, is important to ensure a high quality of service. The problem may be solved by means of Stochastic Petri Nets, which allow to analyse the performance, in terms of the available traction power probability, and the service quality, in terms of service dependability. In order to overcome the simplifications needed to easily approach the problem with the above mentioned procedure, the authors present in this paper an innovative hybrid solution based on the integration of Petri Nets with a traffic simulator, which allows to solve the mechanical equations of the trains movement, taking into account all the constraints related to the track layout the available traction and braking effort and the signalling system.