A critical review of a demographic projection by Charles Gaudreault

Drawing on a projection of the evolution of Quebec's population of French ethnic origin over eight decades (1971-2050) published by the Institut de la statistique du Quebec, I examine in particular the results obtained by Charles Gaudreault for the retrospective period spanning from 1971 to 2014. Based on what is known about our recent demographic past, notably concerning international immigration and fertility, it appears that Charles Gaudreault has overestimated - by nearly 40 % - the growth of the immigrant population and their descendants, and underestimated - by nearly 7 % - the existence of a majority of French ethnic origin. Misled by a "Power law" that failed to take account of the age structure of the population, Gaudreault thought that he was demonstrating that the decline of French Canadians could only be explained by "mass immigration." Using the demographic projections of the Institut de la statistique du Quebec, this review demonstrates that this is not the case, despite the fact that the fertility rate of Quebekers remains insufficient to ensure generational replacement.