What's in Your Nomogram? Personalized Prognostication of Verbal Memory Decline after Temporal Lobe Resection in Adults With Epilepsy

Objective This study aims to develop and externally validate models to predict the probability of postoperative verbal memory decline in adults following temporal lobe resection (TLR) for epilepsy using easily accessible preoperative clinical predictors. Methods Multivariable models were developed to predict delayed verbal memory outcome on 3 commonly used measures: Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT), and Logical Memory (LM), and Verbal Paired Associates (VPA) subtests from Wechsler Memory Scale-Third Edition. Using Harrell's step-down procedure for variable selection, models were developed in 359 adults who underwent TLR at Cleveland Clinic and validated in 290 adults at 1 of 5 epilepsy surgery centers in the United States or Canada. Results Twenty-nine percent of the development cohort and 26% of the validation cohort demonstrated significant decline on at least 1 verbal memory measure. Initial models had good-to-excellent predictive accuracy (calibration (c) statistic range = .77-.80) in identifying patients with memory decline; however, models slightly underestimated decline in the validation cohort. Model coefficients were updated using data from both cohorts to improve stability. The model for RAVLT included surgery side, baseline memory score, and hippocampal resection. The models for LM and VPA included surgery side, baseline score, and education. Updated model performance was good to excellent (RAVLT c = .81, LM c = .76, VPA c = .78). Model calibration was very good, indicating no systematic over- or under-estimation of risk. Conclusions Nomograms are provided in 2 easy-to-use formats to assist clinicians in estimating the probability of verbal memory decline in adults considering TLR for treatment of epilepsy.