Dynamics of cancer in Republic of Tatarstan and approaches to development of mathematical methods for analysis of clinical trials

The official statistics enabled one to analyze the dynamics of epidemiological indicators of oncological pathology in the Republic of Tatarstan over 2011-2015. The paper considers analysis results of the epidemiological prevalence of cancer in the region based on the indicators of the overall morbidity and mortality of the population. The correlation of morbidity rates in the same age groups of male and female are analyzed. A conclusion is drawn about the unfavorable trend in the development of oncological diseases in the republic. The authors also consider theoretical questions of determining mathematical models parameters of oncological diseases to solve applied problems related to the processing of immunological experiments data and clinical observations. They defined approaches to the construction of a model of some hypothetical disease; this model takes into account the development patterns of a certain class of diseases. The facts resulting from various studies and relating to individual aspects of the disease process are systematized and various immunological hypotheses are studied. The tasks to determine the mathematical model parameters from the data of clinical observations using methods of mathematical modeling are set. The research considers approaches to the solution of such tasks as applied to the mathematical model for immune reactions of the body. The role of mathematical models in studying external influences on the dynamics of pathologic processes in the body is shown with the aim of developing strategies and tactics of treatment.