Overview analysis of flooding in the upper basin of the Lerma river: the case of the subbasin of the Tejalpa river, State of Mexico, Mexico

Unforeseen floods of large intensity represent a frequent natural risk which, usually, can be very costly in terms of economic losses, and, some times, in human life losses. The ability to estimate and predict the social impact associated with these events is of vital importance to formulate policies allowing to minimize negative effects, and in the same way evaluate future alternatives for control. The analysis of these types of problems should consider potential risks like water levels and velocity of water flow during flood peaks. Based on flood event predictions, it is possible to use hydraulic models to determine the potential damage from flooding, thus making easier to propose ways To mitigate these damages. The study zone in this work is a subbasin of the Upper Basin of the Lerma River State of Mexico, Mexico. The HEC-RAS. WMS and ARCVIEW models allowed the determination of floodplains for events with return periods of 10, 20, 50 and 100 years, and it was found that the areas that are more affected. classified according to land use, are; urban zones, and irrigation and rainfed agricultural areas. it was determined that San Pablo Autopan and San Andres Cuexcontitlan are the most flood-vulnerable locations.