Changes in world ocean nitrate availability through the 20th century

Conceptual models linking climate change with fluctuations in fish population abundances are based on how cyclic patterns in air sea interactions influence pelagic food web dynamics. The effect of changing mixed layer dynamics on phytoplankton light and nutrient exposure is a prominent focal point in the overall mechanism. The Extended Reconstruction (ER) of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) version one (ERSSTv1) and version two (ERSSTv2) monthly time series from 1854 to 2003, interpreted with the aid of a historically based global Nitrate Depletion Temperature (NDT) climatology, provide a qualitative tool for examining relative temporal and spatial patterns in nitrate availability in normal salinity areas of the world ocean. After an analysis of local NDT variability at four time series stations demonstrated temporal stability compared to SST, [SST-NDT] as a Nitrate Availability Index (NAI) was calculated for April (boreal spring or austral fall) and October (boreal fall and austral spring) for the whole ERSSTv1 data set and for selected years of the ERSSTv2 data set using the global NDT climatology. The more negative the NAI difference, the greater the expected surface nitrate. The more positive the NAI difference, the greater the intensity of temperature stratification between the surface and the nitracline and thus the less likely that nitrate mixed to the surface. The records from April and October both showed that decreased nitrate availability, defined by both smaller negative NAI differences and larger positive NAI differences, generally though not universally occurred throughout the 20th century in association with global warming. The greatest decreases in nitrate availability occurred in two warming events in the time periods 1909-1937 and 1977-present in the Northern Hemisphere and 1926-1937 and 1950-1990 in the Southern Hemisphere. Different areas of the world ocean were affected in each warming event. Prominent exceptions in the ERSSTv1 analysis where 20th century nitrate availability actually increased in at least one season were in western parts of the South Indian, the North Pacific, the equatorial Pacific, the South Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the South Atlantic and in eastern parts of the South Pacific and South Atlantic. The ERSSTv2 analysis also showed increased 20th century nitrate availability in the eastern subarctic Pacific. The nitrate availability trends resulting from the present analysis agree with various literature reports on regional changes in plant nutrient availability, on increased occurrences of harmful algal blooms often associated with dinoflagellates that are better able to access subsurface nitrate pools, and on decadal changes in marine fisheries. They also raise concerns about the resilience of historical patterns of pelagic community structure and function in response to a warming trend continuing into the 21st century. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.