Research assessment using early citation information

Peer-review based research assessment, as implemented in Australia, the United Kingdom, and some other countries, is a very costly exercise. We show that university rankings in economics based on long-run citation counts can be easily predicted using early citations. This would allow a research assessment to predict the relative long-run impact of articles published by a university immediately at the end of the evaluation period. We compare these citation-based university rankings with the rankings of the 2010 Excellence in Research assessment in Australia and the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise in the United Kingdom. Rank correlations are quite strong, but there are some differences between rankings. However, if assessors are willing to consider citation analysis to assess some disciplines, as is the case for the natural sciences and psychology in Australia, it seems reasonable to consider also including economics in that set.