COMPACT KNN: Developing an Analogy-Based Cost Estimation Model for CubeSats

The "CubeSat Or Microsat Probabilistic and Analogies Cost Tool", or COMPACT, is a NASA Headquarters funded effort to fill the gap in cost estimating capabilities for CubeSats, as well as other microsat spacecraft. The COMPACT team has focused mainly on CubeSats to date, and has collected technical, programmatic and cost data on dozens of flown CubeSats missions led by NASA, research labs, and universities. The data covers a large range of costs for a variety of different CubeSat designs and mission types. With this collected data, the COMPACT team has completed a prototype cost modeling approach using k-nearest neighbors (KNN). This approach can be used to produce an early ballpark cost estimate for new CubeSat concepts that is grounded by historical actual costs and designs. This paper will demonstrate the use of KNN with the COMPACT data, and will preview our work to develop a full parametric cost model for CubeSats.