Assessment on the vulnerability of Korean aquaculture to climate change

We assess the vulnerability to climate change of Korean aquaculture based on predicted changes in seawater temperature and salinity in adjacent sea areas of the Korean Peninsula according to representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. Unlike previous studies that have been conducted mostly on a national scale, we classify 14 farming species in major production regions of the Republic of Korea, and assess their vulnerability for each region, using the indicator-based method and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's definition of vulnerability in order to overcome limitations in developing specific adaptation strategies within a country. First, for each exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, specific and proper indicators are selected. Subsequently, these indicators are estimated and weighted to analyze vulnerability to climate change. The results show that the absolute level of vulnerability is high in a long-term period of RCP8.5 in which exposure becomes severe, whereas the relative vulnerability is similar among farming species and regions. Specifically, vulnerability is at the highest level in seaweed, such as laver and sea mustard, while fish, shrimp, and abalone are relatively less vulnerable to climate change.