A climate change risk assessment in aquaculture in Korea

Global aquaculture production is steadily rising, and the aquaculture industry is assuming an increasingly vital role in economic aspects. Despite the growing importance of aquaculture on a global scale, climate change poses challenges to the future growth and stability of the aquaculture. In South Korea, marine aquaculture production is gradually increasing; however, higher sea temperatures caused by climate change are inflicting significant damage on the aquaculture industry. Accordingly, it is necessary to take measures to adapt to climate change, and assessing the level of risks facing the aquaculture from climate change is crucial as the first step in this process. In this study, we conducted the risk assessment to climate change for seventeen primary aquaculture species with sensitivity and impact attributes. As an impact attribute, we consider relationship between projected sea surface temperature and optimal and tolerable temperature by species to enable a more objective and quantitative assessment. The assessed risk scores were re-evaluated based on three criteria of the traffic light system to verify fish farming likelihoods by region. Based on the results, aquaculture was expected to face challenges in multiple areas in the future under the SSP5-8.5. Among the species, seaweed and sea squirt would become unviable for aquaculture in production regions in the future, highlighting the need for prioritized adaptation measures compared to other aquaculture species.