Water Availability of Sub-Basins with Restrictions on Use under Climate Change Scenarios in Brazil

The Queima Pe Stream Basin (QPSB) and Ararao River Basin (ARB) in central Brazil have had recurrent problems with water scarcity. This may get worse under anthropogenic climate change. In order to explore this, we modelled mean water flows in these two basins under two different future climate scenarios. Specifically, modelled two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to model future water availability conditions in these basins. Our results indicate that by the middle of the current century, the basins will experience significant increases in temperature and decreases in humidity and water flow, sometimes leading to periods of extremely low water availability in heavily populated parts of the basins. Given the high levels of current water demand in the region, significant action will be required to mitigate and adapt to the future hydrological regime in the region.