Relationships between ENSO and climate change in China and predictions of ENSO

Relationships between the ENSO events and climate change in China investigated by the Chinese Scientists have been summarized in this paper. The summer monsoon rainfall in China significantly depends on the intensity and location of subtropical High over the northwestern Pacific Ocean at 500 hPa which linked with the anomalies of sea surface temperature (SSTA) over both warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean and the Nino regions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. There are some certain correlations among the ENSO events, typhoon numbers over the western Pacific Ocean, the SSTA in the warm pool, snow cover in Tibetan Plateau, Indian monsoon, South China Sea monsoon and Australian monsoon. The investigations also found that the impacts of both El Nino and La Nina events on the crop productions and human health in China are worth to be noticed. For example, the productions of rice in South China contacted with the ENSO events. Some diseases such as the digestive system diseases linked with the numbers of typhoons landing on China which depended on the El Nino and La Nina events. The simple dynamic models of annual predictions for the ENSO events have been developed in National Climate Center (NCC) of China (denoted as LDEO1/NCC) based on the Zebiak/Cane model (LDEO1). The model has been used to predict the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean by each season since January 1997. The model did the five-seven ensemble predictions respectively. These predictions have been presented in the National Consultation Workshops held by National Climate Center of China by once a season. Tests of predictions for 1997 and 1998 indicated that the model system predicted the process of 1997-1998 ENSO reasonably. The model system also predicted in spring 1998 that a La Nina event might appear in Autumn 1998 and end in summer 1999.