Scenario planning based on geomatics: A case study in Zijin mountain national forest park

With the rapid development of forest tourism, it is crucial to coordinate the conflicting goals of a forest park by making a scientific plan. It is difficult to determine the complex relationship by means of traditional laboratory and field experiments on the scale of landscape. Zijin Mountain national forest park is taken as a case study area, while RS and GIS software ERDAS 8.7, ArcGis 9.0 are chosen as the spatial platforms of doing scenario planning. Three different periods remote sensing data in the years of 2000 (IKNOS), 2002(SPOT5), 2004 (QuickBird) are gathered, then supervised classification, neighborhood analysis are being done before three scenarios of national park in ten years are built based on Cellular Automation Model (CAM). Three spatial pattern index of mean patch area, shape index, patch density of each scenario are calculated by using the spatial pattern analysis program of Fragstats 3.3. After comparison of the three scenarios from two aspects of landscape spatial pattern and protection goals, an optimized planning is made and compared with the land classes in 2002. In the end of the paper, some problems concerned with the scenario making are discussed.