Use of Air Passenger Survey Data in Forecasting Air Travel Demand

Econometric models of air travel demand are an essential tool in the preparation of air travel forecasts that form the basis for a wide range of planning activities in air transportation and airport operation and development. However, most air travel demand models attempt to predict aggregate demand for air travel and do not consider differences in the use of air travel across different segments of the population or how changes in economic factors or the way in which air service is provided affect different types of air trip differently. The paper addresses the need for a more disaggregate approach to understanding how travel propensity varies across different segments of the population or how the characteristics of air travelers vary across different markets and examines the potential role of air passenger surveys in meeting this need. The paper reviews the factors that may influence air travel propensity, describes the information on air traveler characteristics that is typically collected in air passenger surveys, and presents an analysis of the variation in air travel propensity with household income and composition, on the basis of data from a recent air passenger survey performed in the San Francisco Bay Area in California. The paper concludes with some recommendations for improving access to air passenger survey data to support further research into these issues.