A copula-based fuzzy interval-random programming approach for planning water-energy nexus system under uncertainty

被引：40
|
作者：
Yu, L. [1 ,8 ,9 ]
Xiao, Y. [1 ]
Jiang, S. [2 ]
Li, Y. P. [3 ]
Fan, Y. R. [4 ]
Huang, G. H. [5 ]
Lv, J. [6 ]
Zuo, Q. T. [1 ]
Wang, F. Q. [7 ]
机构：
[1] Zhengzhou Univ, Sch Water Conservancy Engn, Zhengzhou 450001, Peoples R China
[2] China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Stimulat & Regulat Water Cycles Riv, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
[3] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[4] Brunel Univ London, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middx, England
[5] Univ Regina, Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities, Regina, SK S4S 7H9, Canada
[6] North China Elect Power Univ, Sino Canada Energy & Environm Res Ctr, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
[7] North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Dept Water Conservancy Engn, Zhengzhou 450046, Peoples R China
[8] Zhengzhou Key Lab Water Resource & Environm, Zhengzhou 450001, Peoples R China
[9] Zhengzhou Univ, Yellow River Inst Ecol Protect & Reg Coordinated, Zhengzhou 450001, Peoples R China
来源：
ENERGY | 2020年 / 196卷
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
Copula; Interaction; Joint risk; Uncertainty; Water-energy nexus system; ELECTRIC-POWER SYSTEMS; INTEGRATED RISK ANALYSIS; MULTIPLE UNCERTAINTIES; URBAN AGGLOMERATION; DECISION-MAKING; MODEL; MANAGEMENT; SIMULATION; GENERATION; MITIGATION;
D O I：
10.1016/j.energy.2020.117063
中图分类号：
O414.1 [热力学];
学科分类号：
摘要：
Water and energy are closely linked and restrict each other, which has become major restraints to urban development associated with constricted water resources availability, increased electricity demand and limited environmental capacity. In this study, a copula-based fuzzy interval-random programming method is proposed through integration of copula-based random programming, interval-parameter programming and fuzzy possibilistic programming. It can both handle random, interval and fuzzy information and reflect system joint-risk existing in the water-energy nexus system of Henan Province, China. A class of copulas associated with different water resources availability and electricity consumption scenarios as well as various uncertainties are examined. Results disclose that: a) uncertainties and scenarios employed to water resources, electricity demand and other module parameters can generate prominent impacts on future water-energy nexus system; b) the percentage of electricity by coal-fired power can decrease by [1.8, 2.6] % under low water resources availability scenario compared to high water resources availability scenario. Findings can provide optimal electricity-supply schemes under the conflicts among economic objective, water resources shortage and electricity demand as well as environmental requirement. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页数：10
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