Fertility differentials in Bangladesh and Pakistan: evidence from demographic and health surveys

Following the launch of family planning programs in the 1960s and 1970s, there has been a divergence in fertility transition across Muslim countries. Bangladesh and Pakistan provide an interesting contrast in the pace of fertility transition. Typical of the Muslim world, both countries had a high fertility level of around 6.6 children per woman in the middle of the twentieth century. While the fertility level in Bangladesh had declined to replacement level by 2016, Pakistan's fertility rate remained well above that level, at 3.5 children per woman. Drawing on data from multiple waves of the Demographic and Health Surveys to run bivariate analyses and negative binomial regression, the paper examines the determinants of fertility differentials within and across the two countries. Pakistani women had more children than Bangladeshi women across all socio-economic variables. Differences in socio-economic conditions, cultural practices such as childbearing norms, and access to family planning between the two countries are plausible reasons for the fertility variations. The paper concludes with implications of fertility differentials in developing countries, and some recommendations on strategies to enhance planned parenthood in high fertility countries.