Boundedly rational expected utility theory

被引：14

作者：

Navarro-Martinez, Daniel ^{[1
,2
]}

Loomes, Graham ^{[3
]}

Isoni, Andrea ^{[3
,4
]}

Butler, David ^{[5
]}

Alaoui, Larbi ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Pompeu Fabra Univ, Dept Econ & Business, Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27, Barcelona 08005, Spain

[2] Barcelona Grad Sch Econ, Barcelona, Spain

[3] Univ Warwick, Warwick Business Sch, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England

[4] Univ Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy

[5] Griffith Univ, Griffith Business Sch, Dept Accounting Finance & Econ, Gold Coast, Qld, Australia

来源：

JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY | 2018年 / 57卷 / 03期

基金：

英国经济与社会研究理事会; 澳大利亚研究理事会;

关键词：

Expected utility; Bounded rationality; Deliberation; Probabilistic choice; Confidence; Response times; SEQUENTIAL SAMPLING MODELS; DECISION-MAKING; PROSPECT-THEORY; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE; STOCHASTIC-MODELS; RESPONSE-TIMES; CHOICE; RISK; PREFERENCES; INFORMATION;

D O I：

10.1007/s11166-018-9293-3

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

We build a satisficing model of choice under risk which embeds Expected Utility Theory (EUT) into a boundedly rational deliberation process. The decision maker accumulates evidence for and against alternative options by repeatedly sampling from her underlying set of EU preferences until the evidence favouring one option satisfies her desired level of confidence. Despite its EUT core, the model produces patterns of behaviour that violate standard EUT axioms, while at the same time capturing systematic relationships between choice probabilities, response times and confidence judgments, which are beyond the scope of theories that do not take deliberation into account.

引用

页码：199 / 223

页数：25

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