Structural changes in Indonesian industry and trade: An input-output analysis

This study evaluates the current achievement of industrialization in Indonesia and clarifies what the major challenges are for sustaining industrialization. This is done by examining structural changes in the economy from the period before to the period after economic crisis using the method of input-output (I-O) analysis. After tracing the history of economic development in Indonesia, changes in industry and trade between 1995 and 2000 are viewed using skyline chart analysis, industrial linkage analysis, and growth-factor decomposition analysis. Results indicate that from 1995 to 2000, the manufacturing industry expanded the share of production, strengthened export orientation, and lowered import dependency. However, these phenomena appear to have resulted primarily from slumps in growth factors other than export demand as well as sharp declines in the value of the rupiah. This study shows that the current decrease of investment is a bottleneck in industrialization and indicates an urgent need for Indonesia to improve the investment environment, particularly for foreign investors.