A new parametric model for the assessment and calibration of medium-range ensemble temperature forecasts

被引：12
|
作者：
Jewson, Stephen [1 ]
Brix, Anders [1 ]
Ziehmann, Christine [1 ]
机构：
[1] RMS, London EC3M 1AJ, England
来源：
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS | 2004年 / 5卷 / 05期
关键词：
ensemble forecast; probabilistic forecast; medium-range forecast; ECMWF; forecast calibration; forecast assessment; spread regression; likelihood;
D O I：
10.1002/asl.69
中图分类号：
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号：
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要：
We present a new method for the assessment and calibration of medium-range ensemble temperature forecasts. The method is based on maximizing the likelihood of a simple parametric model for the temperature distribution, and leads to some new insights into the predictability of uncertainty. Copyright (C) 2004 Royal Meteorological Society
引用
收藏
页码：96 / 102
页数：7
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Ensemble calibration of ECMWF's medium-range forecasts
    Ihasz, Istvan
    Ueveges, Zoltan
    Mile, Mate
    Nemeth, Csilla
    [J]. IDOJARAS, 2010, 114 (04): : 275 - 286
  • [2] Assessment of medium-range ensemble forecasts of heat waves
    Lee, Hyun-Ju
    Lee, Woo-Seop
    Yoo, Jin Ho
    [J]. ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2016, 17 (01): : 19 - 25
  • [3] Medium-range multimodel ensemble combination and calibration
    Johnson, Christine
    Swinbank, Richard
    [J]. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2009, 135 (640) : 777 - 794
  • [4] Spatiotemporal Behavior of the TIGGE Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts
    Kipling, Zak
    Primo, Cristina
    Charlton-Perez, Andrew
    [J]. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2011, 139 (08) : 2561 - 2571
  • [5] Blocking Predictability in Operational Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts
    Matsueda, Mio
    [J]. SOLA, 2009, 5 : 113 - 116
  • [6] Stratification of NWP Forecasts for Medium-Range Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting
    Khan, Mudasser Muneer
    Shamseldin, Asaad Y.
    Melville, Bruce W.
    Shoaib, Muhammad
    [J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING, 2015, 20 (07)
  • [7] Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts
    Parker, Tess
    Woollings, Tim
    Weisheimer, Antje
    [J]. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2018, 144 (716) : 2358 - 2379
  • [8] Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System
    McCollor, Doug
    Stull, Roland
    [J]. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 2009, 24 (01) : 3 - 17
  • [9] Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis and Predictability of Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasts
    Keune, Jessica
    Ohlwein, Christian
    Hense, Andreas
    [J]. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2014, 142 (11) : 4074 - 4090
  • [10] Short- and medium-range hydrological ensemble forecasts over France
    Thirel, G.
    Regimbeau, F.
    Martin, E.
    Noilhan, J.
    Habets, F.
    [J]. ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2010, 11 (02): : 72 - 77
12345