Decoupling China's mining carbon emissions from economic development: Analysis of influencing factors

Mining provides basic materials and energy for human life and supports economic and social prosperity and development. The decoupling of mining carbon emissions from economic development is an important way of achieving China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This study uses the Tapio decoupling model to measure the relationship between China's economic development and carbon emissions from 2001 to 2018. It analyzes the overall industry as well as its subdivisions and identifies the factors driving carbon emissions with help from the improved Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition models. The results show that, except for the unstable situation in the oil and natural gas mining industry, the other mining divisions have attained strong decoupling and have become stable, showing a continuous positive trend. On the whole, the mining product smelting and processing industry has achieved a major transformation, moving from negative decoupling to weak decoupling, but there are great differences between different sub-sectors. The overall consumption of China's mining products, and the incremental carbon emissions have continued to decline, while economic development has shifted from inefficient expansion to high-quality economic development, although without reaching the ideal state. The economic factor and energy intensity effects are the key factors in increasing and restraining carbon emissions, respectively, and their influence should not be ignored. This study aims to provide a decision-making basis for China's mining industry, that it might carry out carbon emission reduction planning, and promote the clean and efficient construction of the industry and the green and high-quality development of the economy.