Research on the Influencing Factors and Decoupling State of Carbon Emissions in China's Transportation Industry

To help achieve the dual-carbon target, based on the LMDI model and C-D production function, this study decomposed the influencing factors of CO2 emissions in China's transportation industry from 2000 to 2020, then combined the Tapio model to explore the decoupling state. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, CO2 emissions increased from 263.88 million tons to 957.59 million tons in China's transportation industry. (2) The transportation intensity effect was the most significant factor to curb the growth in carbon emissions, and the total carbon emissions were reduced by about 364.84 million tons. The capital input effect was the primary factor promoting the carbon emissions, increasing the total carbon emissions by about 899.78 million tons. The effect of energy structure is the factor with the most potential to restrain the increase in carbon emissions in the future. (3) The decoupling state of the transportation industry mainly consists of expansive coupling and weak decoupling. Especially after 2010, the decoupling state remained a weak decoupling and continued to improve. The results can provide lessons for the establishment of policies in China's transportation industry.