THE ECONOMIC COSTS TO THE U.S. OF CLOSING ITS BORDERS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS

被引：12

作者：

Dixon, P. B. ^{[1
]}

Giesecke, J. A. ^{[1
]}

Rimmer, M. T. ^{[1
]}

Rose, A. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Monash Univ, Ctr Policy Studies, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia

[2] Univ So Calif, Ctr Risk & Econ Anal Terrorism Events, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA

来源：

DEFENCE AND PEACE ECONOMICS | 2011年 / 22卷 / 01期

关键词：

Border closure; Strategic reserves; Bottleneck imports; Dynamic CGE; Terrorism; Pandemics; INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL; UNITED-STATES; CGE MODELS; SYSTEM;

D O I：

10.1080/10242694.2010.491658

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We use a CGE model to simulate the effects of a one-year US border closure. Relative to previously used input-output modeling, CGE modeling offers a flexible framework for capturing bottleneck and labor-market effects. Our analysis suggests that the costs of a prolonged closure could be much greater than indicated by input-output studies. We find that cutting all imports by 95% in an environment of sticky real wages would reduce GDP by 48%. However, if bottleneck imports (mainly oil) were exempt and workers accepted real wage cuts then the GDP reduction would be only 11%.

引用

页码：85 / 97

页数：13

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