Simulation and impact assessment of future land use and land cover changes in two protected areas in Tehran, Iran

Exploring land use and land cover (LULC) changes in protected areas (PAs) is critical for effective environmental management and sustainability. PAs are ecological regions which play a critical role in preserving natural, ecological, economic, and even cultural values of specific areas. This study monitored LULC changes in two PAs within Tehran province in Iran, namely Jajrud and Tangeh Vashi, using Landsat imagery for the years 1989-2019 and simulated a future LULC map for 2050 using the Markov chain-cellular automata model. The simulated map indicated that built-up areas will have the top increasing trend in Jajrud by 2050; however, high-density pasture will decrease because of the heavy dependency and immediate vicinity of Jajrud to Tehran, the largest city and the capital of Iran. In Tangeh Vashi, bare land expansion will have the top increasing trend, whereas the volume of high-density pasture will have the top decreasing trend. According to the results, the LULC changes in Jajrud and Tangeh Vashi are already greater than management plan standards and have led to the destruction of valuable biological habitats. Without proper planning and managerial strategies, the continuation of such changes will further destroy ecosystems and cause species extinction and unsustainability in the studied PAs.