On the fallacy of averages in project risk management

被引：53
|
作者：
Elmaghraby, SE
机构：
[1] N Carolina State Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA
[2] N Carolina State Univ, Grad Program Operat Res, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA
来源：
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH | 2005年 / 165卷 / 02期
关键词：
project planning; resource allocation; stochastic work content;
D O I：
10.1016/j.ejor.2004.04.003
中图分类号：
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号：
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要：
Managers recognize the presence of uncertainty in the estimates of the various parameters of their projects, but usually circumvent the required analysis (which can be demanding) by replacing the random variables by their averages. This paper argues against such practice. It demonstrates that gross errors can be committed in cost estimates and in the bids based on them. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：307 / 313
页数：7
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [31] Risk management and value management in project appraisal
    Afila, D.
    Smith, N. J.
    PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS-MANAGEMENT PROCUREMENT AND LAW, 2007, 160 (02) : 63 - 67
  • [32] A Risk Management Methodology for Project Risk Dependencies
    Kwan, Tak Wah
    Leung, Hareton K. N.
    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SOFTWARE ENGINEERING, 2011, 37 (05) : 635 - 648
  • [33] Risk identification step of the project risk management
    Kasap, Deniz
    Kaymak, Murat
    PICMET '07: PORTLAND INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MANAGEMENT OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, VOLS 1-6, PROCEEDINGS: MANAGEMENT OF CONVERGING TECHNOLOGIES, 2007, : 2116 - 2120
  • [34] It project risk factors: The project management professionals perspective
    Xavier University, Cincinnati, OH 45207-5161, United States
    J. Comput. Inf. Syst., 2007, 4 (61-69):
  • [35] IT project risk factors: The project management professionals perspective
    Tesch, Debbie
    Kloppenborg, Timothy J.
    Frolick, Mark N.
    JOURNAL OF COMPUTER INFORMATION SYSTEMS, 2007, 47 (04) : 61 - 69
  • [36] CONDITION OF ACCEPTABILITY OF PROJECT RISK IN MANAGEMENT OF THE PROJECT PORTFOLIO
    Kral, Pavol
    Janoskova, Katarina
    GLOBALIZATION AND ITS SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES, PTS I AND II, 2015, : 345 - +
  • [37] Renewable energy project: Project management, challenges and risk
    Goh, H. H.
    Lee, S. W.
    Chua, Q. S.
    Goh, K. C.
    Kok, B. C.
    Teo, K. T. K.
    RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS, 2014, 38 : 917 - 932
  • [38] Risk Management in Project Portfolios Is More Than Managing Project Risks: A Contingency Perspective on Risk Management
    Teller, Juliane
    Kock, Alexander
    Gemuenden, Hans Georg
    PROJECT MANAGEMENT JOURNAL, 2014, 45 (04) : 67 - 80
  • [39] Risk Management in Highway Construction Project Based on Integrated Project Management System
    Jing Bingyin
    Jing Chunju
    ADVANCES IN MANAGEMENT OF TECHNOLOGY, PT 1, 2008, : 146 - +
  • [40] The Research of Risk Management in Project Contracts
    Zhu, Rongjie
    Peng, Ying
    Sun, Yang
    ARCHITECTURE, BUILDING MATERIALS AND ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT, PTS 1-4, 2013, 357-360 : 2546 - 2549
12345