Eliciting subjective probability distributions with binary lotteries

被引：11
|
作者：
Harrison, Glenn W. [1 ,2 ,5 ,6 ]
Martinez-Correa, Jimmy [3 ]
Swarthout, J. Todd [4 ]
Ulm, Eric R. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Georgia State Univ, Robinson Coll Business, Dept Risk Management & Insurance, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA
[2] Georgia State Univ, Robinson Coll Business, Ctr Econ Anal Risk, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA
[3] Copenhagen Business Sch, Dept Econ, Copenhagen, Denmark
[4] Georgia State Univ, Andrew Young Sch Policy Studies, Dept Econ, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA
[5] Univ Cape Town, Sch Econ, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa
[6] IZA Inst Study Labor, Bonn, Germany
来源：
ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2015年 / 127卷
关键词：
Subjective belief distributions; Risk attitudes; Experiments; RISK-AVERSION;
D O I：
10.1016/j.econlet.2014.12.027
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
We test in a laboratory experiment the theoretical prediction that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We find evidence consistent with theory in our experiment. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：68 / 71
页数：4
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries
    Harrison, Glenn W.
    Martinez-Correa, Jimmy
    Swarthout, J. Todd
    JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION, 2014, 101 : 128 - 140
  • [2] ELICITING SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS ON CONTINUOUS VARIABLES
    SEAVER, DA
    WINTERFELDT, DV
    EDWARDS, W
    ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE, 1978, 21 (03): : 379 - 391
  • [3] A BLUEPRINT OF ELI - A NEW METHOD FOR ELICITING SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
    VANLENTHE, J
    BEHAVIOR RESEARCH METHODS INSTRUMENTS & COMPUTERS, 1993, 25 (04): : 425 - 433
  • [4] Eliciting Properties of Probability Distributions
    Lambert, Nicolas
    Pennock, David M.
    Shoham, Yoav
    EC'08: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2008 ACM CONFERENCE ON ELECTRONIC COMMERCE, 2008, : 129 - 138
  • [5] Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions
    Garthwaite, PH
    Kadane, JB
    O'Hagan, A
    JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, 2005, 100 (470) : 680 - 700
  • [6] Eliciting Properties of Probability Distributions: The Highlights
    Lambert, Nicolas
    Pennock, David M.
    Shoham, Yoav
    ACM SIGECOM EXCHANGES, 2008, 7 (03)
  • [7] Recovering subjective probability distributions
    Yamazaki, Akira
    JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, 2022, 42 (07) : 1234 - 1263
  • [8] CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
    WINKLER, RL
    MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 1968, 15 (02) : B61 - B75
  • [9] REVISION OF CONTINUOUS SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
    PETERSON, CR
    PHILLIPS, LD
    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON HUMAN FACTORS IN ELECTRONICS, 1966, HFE7 (01): : 19 - &
  • [10] Scoring rules for subjective probability distributions
    Harrison, Glenn W.
    Martinez-Correa, Jimmy
    Swarthout, J. Todd
    Ulm, Eric R.
    JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION, 2017, 134 : 430 - 448
12345